波罗的海干散货指数(Baltic Dry Index, BDI) 是研究航运股未来业绩和投资价值的重要指数，也是国际贸易和国际经济的领先指标之一，它集中反映了全球对矿产，粮食，煤炭，水泥等初级产品的需求。波罗的海干散货指数由位于伦敦的波罗的海交易所(The Baltic Exchange)每天发布，它不仅是中国远洋(601919.SH, 01919.HK)等干散货航运股价格走势的重要依据，同时也是有色金属，煤炭等初级商品制造商股价走势的可参考指标之一。波罗的海交易所是会员制的专业航运交易所，BDI的前身BFI (Baltic Freight Index)于1985年开始发布，1999年BDI指数取代了BFI，成为国际公认的干散货运输市场最权威的晴雨表。波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)是BCI,BPI,BHMI三个指数的加权综合指数，这三个指数分别反映了不同级别干散货的运价。
什么是干散货运输 (Dry Bulk Shipping)
远洋运输一般分为集装箱运输，干散货运输，油轮运输三种形式。其中集装箱运输主要用于下游制成品的运输，如汽车，电子产品，纺织品等，单位是TEU（标准箱）；干散货运输主要适用于铁矿石，煤炭，粮食，水泥等上游初级产品的运输，单位为吨；油轮运输则主要适用于原油，液化天然气等。
由于干散货航运主要体现的是全球初级产品的需求，因此是经济的领先指标，具有毛利高，价格波动大的特点。而集装箱航运则主要和中下游产品相关，并不能很好地反映宏观需求，更不是什么领先指标，其运价波动也要平缓的多。
波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)的作用
波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)的参考价值主要体现在以下几个方面：
1。BDI指数是全球经济的缩影。全球经济过热期间，初级商品市场的需求增加，BDI指数也相应上涨。
2。BDI指数相对可观。BDI指数不存在短线资金炒作的问题，如果短线资金进入大宗商品市场炒作，但同期BDI指数不涨的话，则大宗商品市场高企的价格就值得警惕
3。BDI指数与初级商品市场的价格正相关。也就是说，如果煤炭，有色金属，铁矿石等价格上涨，BDI指数一般也是要涨的。
4。BDI指数与美元指数负相关。美元走弱一般意味着新兴国家经济强于美国经济，而新兴国家经济由投资驱动，这将带动铁矿石的需求，BDI指数于是走高。
5。BDI指数与美国股市走势正相关。理由与美元指数相同
From 潘大财经专题站
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Company Update - Tianjin Port Development Holdings (3382.hk)
Acquisition of oil terminal by TPC in line with expectation.
What's changed?
Tianjin Port Co (TPC), 56.8% owned subsidiary of Tianjin Port Development (TPD) has announced,
(1) it will acquire 50% stake in crude oil handling project company, Tianjin Port Shihua, for a consideration of RMB329.6mn. With designed handling capacity of 20 tonnes, the terminal mainly serves Sinopec's 1mn tonne ethylene project in Tianjin (with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, break ground for construction on 26 June 2006) and other petrochemical plants in Hebei.
(2) 2010 net profit for TPC increased 25% yoy to RMB803mn, implying an attributable profit of RMB456mn to TPD.
Implications
(1) the acquisition of the oil terminal has been widely expected by the market and is inline with our expectation that oil will emerge as the major driver for TPD. 2011E earnings and NAV enhancement is estimated to be 3.4% and 2.6%.
(2) TPC is estimated to contribute 80% of the earnings of TPD. Thus, limited upside risk for TPD's result on 28 March.
(3)In 2011, we have still seen weak iron ore and coal throughput data for Tianjin Port recently. Iron ore unloading volume in Tianjin Port declined 16% yoy in Jan 2011 while the whole industry grew 33%. Coal shipments from Tianjin Port registered 6.8% yoy growth in 2M11, which is slower than the 12.2% for Qinghuangdao and 21.3% for Huanghua.
Upside risk: Better than expected performance in container and oil business
Downside risk: further market share loss in iron ore.
From GS Company Update - Tianjin Port Development Holdings (3382.hk) 24 March 2011
What's changed?
Tianjin Port Co (TPC), 56.8% owned subsidiary of Tianjin Port Development (TPD) has announced,
(1) it will acquire 50% stake in crude oil handling project company, Tianjin Port Shihua, for a consideration of RMB329.6mn. With designed handling capacity of 20 tonnes, the terminal mainly serves Sinopec's 1mn tonne ethylene project in Tianjin (with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, break ground for construction on 26 June 2006) and other petrochemical plants in Hebei.
(2) 2010 net profit for TPC increased 25% yoy to RMB803mn, implying an attributable profit of RMB456mn to TPD.
Implications
(1) the acquisition of the oil terminal has been widely expected by the market and is inline with our expectation that oil will emerge as the major driver for TPD. 2011E earnings and NAV enhancement is estimated to be 3.4% and 2.6%.
(2) TPC is estimated to contribute 80% of the earnings of TPD. Thus, limited upside risk for TPD's result on 28 March.
(3)In 2011, we have still seen weak iron ore and coal throughput data for Tianjin Port recently. Iron ore unloading volume in Tianjin Port declined 16% yoy in Jan 2011 while the whole industry grew 33%. Coal shipments from Tianjin Port registered 6.8% yoy growth in 2M11, which is slower than the 12.2% for Qinghuangdao and 21.3% for Huanghua.
Upside risk: Better than expected performance in container and oil business
Downside risk: further market share loss in iron ore.
From GS Company Update - Tianjin Port Development Holdings (3382.hk) 24 March 2011
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Asia Pacific: Conglomerates
Jan 2011 through put rose by 18%, partly distorted by CNY
According to Minister of Transport, the Jan throughput of China container rose by 18% yoy to 13.5 million TEUs. This represents a mom growth of 10%. The performance in Jan is positively affected by an earlier CNY in 2011 (Feb 3 vs Feb 14 in 2010), when factories and exporters front-loaded most of the cargoes. However, GS economist still believes Jan trade data reflects strong underlying growth driven by both external demand and domestic consumption. Among the top 8 ports, container throughput in Yangtze River continues to lead, up 25% yoy, followed by 19% in Bohai rim.
Feb likely to be weak, total data of 2 months are more comparable
Despite a strong start of 2011, GS expects Feb to be a weaker month due to the CNY effect and an absence of low base effect. Data from SIPG (Shanghai International Port Group) suggests a daily run rate of around 65,000 TEU month to date, which indicates 3% yoy decline in Feb. It makes more sense to compare the total throughput data of the 2 month and expect the growth to be in line with 2011 full year forecast of 11.5%. Looking ahead, with continued recovery of US, which will continue to benefit YRD and PRD, and increasing intra-Asia trade, the throughput data is on track to reach that full year forecast.
Prefer COSCO Pacific and Dalian Port within China Port Sector
COSCO Pacific (1199.hk) remains top pick with new port turning around to underpin high earning growth (21% in 2010E Vs 3% for China Merchants). Valuation also looks undemanding, trading at 14x 2011E P/E vs mid-cycle valuation of 17x.
On the bulk side, GS prefers Dalian Port (2880.hk), which has underperformed its peers by 10% ytd due to its relatively low earnings contribution from container business. GS believes the current weakness offers a good entry point as the mid-term catalyst of new petrochemical plant remains intact.
From GS Asia Pacific: : Conglomerates 23 Feb 2011
Comment: Data from SIPG largely overstated the actual throughput. Should consider the impact.
According to Minister of Transport, the Jan throughput of China container rose by 18% yoy to 13.5 million TEUs. This represents a mom growth of 10%. The performance in Jan is positively affected by an earlier CNY in 2011 (Feb 3 vs Feb 14 in 2010), when factories and exporters front-loaded most of the cargoes. However, GS economist still believes Jan trade data reflects strong underlying growth driven by both external demand and domestic consumption. Among the top 8 ports, container throughput in Yangtze River continues to lead, up 25% yoy, followed by 19% in Bohai rim.
Feb likely to be weak, total data of 2 months are more comparable
Despite a strong start of 2011, GS expects Feb to be a weaker month due to the CNY effect and an absence of low base effect. Data from SIPG (Shanghai International Port Group) suggests a daily run rate of around 65,000 TEU month to date, which indicates 3% yoy decline in Feb. It makes more sense to compare the total throughput data of the 2 month and expect the growth to be in line with 2011 full year forecast of 11.5%. Looking ahead, with continued recovery of US, which will continue to benefit YRD and PRD, and increasing intra-Asia trade, the throughput data is on track to reach that full year forecast.
Prefer COSCO Pacific and Dalian Port within China Port Sector
COSCO Pacific (1199.hk) remains top pick with new port turning around to underpin high earning growth (21% in 2010E Vs 3% for China Merchants). Valuation also looks undemanding, trading at 14x 2011E P/E vs mid-cycle valuation of 17x.
On the bulk side, GS prefers Dalian Port (2880.hk), which has underperformed its peers by 10% ytd due to its relatively low earnings contribution from container business. GS believes the current weakness offers a good entry point as the mid-term catalyst of new petrochemical plant remains intact.
From GS Asia Pacific: : Conglomerates 23 Feb 2011
Comment: Data from SIPG largely overstated the actual throughput. Should consider the impact.
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Something about clean energy / nuclear energy
Casting
Casting is a manufacturing process by which a liquid material is poured into the mold, which contains a hollow cavity of the desired shape, and then allowed to solidify.
Forging
Forging is the manufacturing process involving the shaping of metal using localized compressive force. Forging is often classified according to the temperature at which it is performed:"cold," "warm," or "hot" forging. Forged parts can range in weight from less than a kilogram to 580 metric tons. Forged parts usually require further processing to achieve a finished part.
Source from wikipedia
Casting is a manufacturing process by which a liquid material is poured into the mold, which contains a hollow cavity of the desired shape, and then allowed to solidify.
Forging
Forging is the manufacturing process involving the shaping of metal using localized compressive force. Forging is often classified according to the temperature at which it is performed:"cold," "warm," or "hot" forging. Forged parts can range in weight from less than a kilogram to 580 metric tons. Forged parts usually require further processing to achieve a finished part.
Source from wikipedia
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Containerships most likely to surprise positively
The containerships sector is attractive because of favorable demand/supply dynamics coupled with attractive valuations. Container freight rates may continue to soften over the next three months before rebounding from 2Q11. However, this is discounted at current valuations of 1.0X EV/fleet value. An early than expected recovery in rates could lead to positive earnings surprise, driving share price performances over the next 12 months.
Transpacific and intra-Asia rates could outperform Asia-Europe rates on more favorable demand/supply dynamics. Stronger US economics recovery and intra-regional trade could underpin robust volume growth for Transpacific and intra-Asia trade. Meanwhile, Asia-Europe trade may also suffer from higher supply growth as the current orderbook consists of mainly larger vessel classes, which are more likely to be deployed in Asia-Europe trade as deepwater ports than can accommodate these large vessels are mainly located in Europe. The following top picks have greater exposure to Transpacific and intra-Asia trade relative to their peers.
Favorable tip picks: Orient Overseas (0316.hk); Neptune Orient Lines (NO3.sgx); Hanjing shipping (000700.KS); Evergreen Marine (2603.TW) and Wan Hai (2615.TW).
From GS Report: Asia Transportation 13 Jan 2011
Transpacific and intra-Asia rates could outperform Asia-Europe rates on more favorable demand/supply dynamics. Stronger US economics recovery and intra-regional trade could underpin robust volume growth for Transpacific and intra-Asia trade. Meanwhile, Asia-Europe trade may also suffer from higher supply growth as the current orderbook consists of mainly larger vessel classes, which are more likely to be deployed in Asia-Europe trade as deepwater ports than can accommodate these large vessels are mainly located in Europe. The following top picks have greater exposure to Transpacific and intra-Asia trade relative to their peers.
Favorable tip picks: Orient Overseas (0316.hk); Neptune Orient Lines (NO3.sgx); Hanjing shipping (000700.KS); Evergreen Marine (2603.TW) and Wan Hai (2615.TW).
From GS Report: Asia Transportation 13 Jan 2011
Friday, January 7, 2011
China / Wuhan Retail
The growth potential for China's tier 2/3 cities is still bright. Wuhan's GDP grew 15.2% in 2009, well ahead of the 9.7% average of four tier 1 cities (namely, SH, BJ, GZ, SZ). Massive infrastructure investments are taking place, and local government is linking the 8 satellite cities close to Wuhan's development. Wuhan's properties are 20-25% Shanghai prices, suggesting income/consumption has significant room to grow.
The department store format, compared with street-standing stores (usually for brand building rather than profit making) or malls, has strong competitiveness and viability. The space allocated to each brand in department store is smaller than in the mall space. Additionally, the ability to change tenants as frequently as on a six-month basis (compare to mall tenancy contracts which normally last for 3 years) which makes department store very nimble to adjusting product mix to changing fashion and taste.
Domestic sports brand saturation appears uncomfortably high, with rising rent being the single biggest challenge. As rent increases continue to outpace sales productivity gains, the economics of domestic sports brand business model could face significant challenges in the coming year.
While the demand side remains bright, we see a significant amount of new modern retail capacity coming up in the next 2-3 years. Dalian Wanda has three shopping centers under construction. The quality of new projects and growth scalability will become increasingly more important in differentiating companies from others.
Buy: Intime 1883.HK; Maoye 0848.HK; Belle 1880.HK; Xtep 1368.HK
Sell: NWDS 0825.HK; Anta 2020.HK; Ports Design 0529.HK
From GS Report: Thoughts from Wuhan: Retail field trip takeaways
The department store format, compared with street-standing stores (usually for brand building rather than profit making) or malls, has strong competitiveness and viability. The space allocated to each brand in department store is smaller than in the mall space. Additionally, the ability to change tenants as frequently as on a six-month basis (compare to mall tenancy contracts which normally last for 3 years) which makes department store very nimble to adjusting product mix to changing fashion and taste.
Domestic sports brand saturation appears uncomfortably high, with rising rent being the single biggest challenge. As rent increases continue to outpace sales productivity gains, the economics of domestic sports brand business model could face significant challenges in the coming year.
While the demand side remains bright, we see a significant amount of new modern retail capacity coming up in the next 2-3 years. Dalian Wanda has three shopping centers under construction. The quality of new projects and growth scalability will become increasingly more important in differentiating companies from others.
Buy: Intime 1883.HK; Maoye 0848.HK; Belle 1880.HK; Xtep 1368.HK
Sell: NWDS 0825.HK; Anta 2020.HK; Ports Design 0529.HK
From GS Report: Thoughts from Wuhan: Retail field trip takeaways
Saturday, January 1, 2011
China Banking outlook 2011
The systemic risk is low given that total government borrowing, and LGP loans (loan to local government-owned platforms) account for less than 50% of the GDP. And the government is closely monitoring the LGP loans by the China Banking Regulatory Commission(CBRC), Ministry of Finance (MOF) and banks. Additionally, loans to projects that rely on fiscal revenue to repay are largely loans to LGPs owned by big cities or rich province. Big banks' LGP customers are largely owned by these government, too.
There are some positive development in the resolution of LGP loans. First, LGP loans now are closely monitored by CBRC/MOF. The coming property tax and resources tax will be an initial positive step in providing new stable revenues for local government. Current reduction of local government layers will build a foundation for taxation reform of government.
Risk still exits. The problematic LGP loans may result from inadequate due diligence or weak lending practices by some banks in 2009. On a standalone basis and excluding subsidies, many LGPs cash flow and interest coverage are low, and thus low stand-alone credit ratings. In the case of severe macro slowdown, whether local government will support LGPs or allow banks to sell the collaterals remains a question.
From GS report: Banking panel on LGP loans: low systemic risk, ongoing fiscal reform (2nd Nov 2010)
There are some positive development in the resolution of LGP loans. First, LGP loans now are closely monitored by CBRC/MOF. The coming property tax and resources tax will be an initial positive step in providing new stable revenues for local government. Current reduction of local government layers will build a foundation for taxation reform of government.
Risk still exits. The problematic LGP loans may result from inadequate due diligence or weak lending practices by some banks in 2009. On a standalone basis and excluding subsidies, many LGPs cash flow and interest coverage are low, and thus low stand-alone credit ratings. In the case of severe macro slowdown, whether local government will support LGPs or allow banks to sell the collaterals remains a question.
From GS report: Banking panel on LGP loans: low systemic risk, ongoing fiscal reform (2nd Nov 2010)
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